Container Shipping Starts 2026 in Fragile Balance amid New US Tariff Threats
Container shipping kicked off 2026 in a fragile equilibrium, with global freight rates showing limited weekly variations across major trade routes. However, growing geopolitical tensions, particularly from the United States, threaten to disrupt this balance between supply and demand.
According to Xeneta, as of January 15, 2026, average market rates from the Far East were:
- US West Coast (USWC): US$2,702/FEU
- US East Coast (USEC): US$3,715/FEU
- Northern Europe: US$2,862/FEU
- Mediterranean: US$4,735/FEU
Weekly movements were mostly stable. On the Far East-USWC route, freight rates remained flat, rising just 0.5%, with capacity increasing by 1.3%. Rates to the USEC climbed 1.3% amid a significant 9.9% capacity increase, while Northern Europe saw a modest 1.2% rate rise. In the Mediterranean, rates fell 0.6% as capacity growth (4.7%) outpaced demand.
US Tariff Threats Increase Market Uncertainty
Trade uncertainty is escalating, especially due to the US. Maritime analyst Lars Jensen noted that President Donald Trump announced new tariffs targeting Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland,10% starting February 1, rising to 25% from June 1. Jensen remarked that these measures “have nothing to do with trade but are tied to Trump’s ambitions regarding Greenland,” despite opposition from Greenlandic and Danish governments.
European reactions have been of “disbelief,” and the move could derail the EU-US trade agreement, which sought 15% tariffs on European goods and zero tariffs on select US products. Jensen added that this development signals to the global market that trade agreements with the US may be unreliable, prompting exporters to explore alternative markets.
Recent trade deals, such as the Canada-China trade agreement and the EU-Mercosur deal, indicate a trend of increasing global trade outside the US. Even the mere threat of new tariffs is affecting US importers and pushing global exporters to diversify their markets.
Suez Canal Developments Could Affect Freight Rates
Operationally, the Suez Canal is showing key developments. Peter Sand, director of analysis at Xeneta, highlighted Maersk’s resumption of services through the Red Sea as a significant step. Initially limited to smaller vessels outside alliances, Maersk’s move tests market recovery and signals potential wider normalization over the next 3–5 months.
A full return to Suez could free up 6–8% of global shipping capacity, putting downward pressure on freight rates. Spot rates from the Far East are already down 43% year-on-year to the USWC and 30% to Northern Europe, while long-term contracts suggest rates may return to pre-Red Sea crisis levels even without a full-scale recovery.
The start of 2026 demonstrates the delicate balance of global container shipping rates, which remain highly sensitive to geopolitical shifts, tariff threats, and operational changes in key trade corridors like the Suez Canal.
