China’s Russian Crude Oil Imports Surge to Record Levels in February amid India’s Cutbacks

China’s imports of Russian crude oil are set to reach a new record high in February 2026, marking rising Chinese demand even as India scales back its purchases of Russian oil, according to traders and ship-tracking data. China’s Russian oil imports are estimated at around 2.07 to 2.083 million barrels per day in February, up sharply from January’s estimated 1.7 million bpd, driven largely by independent Chinese refiners snapping up heavily discounted cargoes amid shifting global trade patterns.

The surge in Russian crude shipments to China comes after Indian refiners significantly reduced their purchases from Moscow, with India’s Russian crude imports expected to fall to about 1.159 million bpd in February, according to provisional data. India’s cutbacks reflect broader geopolitical and market pressures, including Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine war and diplomatic efforts tied to trade negotiations with the United States, which have encouraged New Delhi to diversify its crude sources.

The widening gap between Chinese and Indian demand has pushed discounts on Russian crude to unusual depths, with grades such as Urals trading $9 to $11 per barrel below the ICE Brent benchmark for deliveries into China, the lowest discount levels seen in years. These steep price reductions, combined with strong interest from China’s so-called “teapot” independent refiners, have made Russian supplies more attractive relative to competing grades such as Iranian light crudes.

Independent refiners in China, particularly those based in Shandong province, have emerged as major buyers of discounted Russian crude, contributing to the overall increase in Russia’s eastern export flows. Russian export grades including ESPO, Sokol and Varandey, along with the flagship ESPO blend from the Far East port of Kozmino closer to Chinese markets, have helped fill the widening demand gap left by India’s retreat from Russian supplies.

Market observers note that China effectively surpassed India as Moscow’s top client for seaborne shipments from November 2025 onwards, reflecting a rapid shift in global crude oil flows. The evolution of these trade patterns underscores the impact of geopolitical pressures and sanctions regimes on international energy markets, as well as the ongoing recalibration of Russia’s crude export strategy.