For the First Time in 40 Years, Panama’s Gulf Fails to Experience Seasonal Upwelling

Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) have reported that the annual upwelling phenomenon in the Gulf of Panama failed for the first time in recorded history in 2025, marking a major shift in oceanographic patterns and raising concerns for local fisheries.

Upwelling is a natural process where cold, nutrient-rich waters rise to the surface, typically driven by northern trade winds during the dry season (December to April). This process supports highly productive fisheries, keeps Pacific coastal waters cooler, and helps protect coral reefs from thermal stress. For over 40 years, this seasonal event has been a predictable and vital feature of Panama’s marine ecosystem.

Researchers studying the phenomenon found that weakened trade winds were likely responsible for the disruption in 2025. As a result, the usual drops in water temperature and spikes in marine productivity were significantly reduced, potentially impacting the livelihoods of coastal communities that depend on fishing.

The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), underscore the broader implications of climate disruption on fundamental ocean processes. Scientists emphasize that tropical upwelling systems, despite their ecological and socioeconomic importance, remain under-monitored, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen ocean-climate observation and prediction capabilities in tropical regions.

This unprecedented observation was part of a collaborative study involving the S/Y Eugen Seibold research vessel from the Max Planck Institute and STRI, marking one of the first major research outcomes from this international partnership.

The 2025 upwelling failure serves as a warning about the vulnerability of tropical oceans to climate change and the potential consequences for fisheries, marine biodiversity, and coastal economies in Central America.