China Crude Oil Imports, Iran War Impact, LNG Imports Decline, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Shape Global Energy Market
BEIJING: China crude oil imports remained relatively resilient despite the ongoing Iran war impact, although broader energy market signals point to tightening supply conditions and declining LNG imports. Official data shows that China crude oil imports in March stood at 49.98 million metric tons, or about 11.77 million barrels per day, reflecting a slight year-on-year drop due to a high base, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East oil supply risks are expected to influence future trade flows.
China crude oil imports were largely shielded from immediate Iran war impact as Middle East oil cargoes had already been loaded earlier in the year, keeping seaborne crude imports stable at around 10.5 million barrels per day. However, refinery utilization in China declined, with operators adjusting runs due to crude supply risks and weaker refining margins, signaling caution across the global oil market amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Analysts indicate that China could face tighter crude supply in April, potentially falling short of demand by nearly 2 million barrels per day. To maintain stability in the global energy market, refiners may rely on existing inventories, even as refinery throughput is expected to decline further. The situation reflects growing pressure from the Iran war impact and ongoing Middle East oil uncertainties.
Exports of refined oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, dropped significantly in March following policy restrictions. The temporary export ban on refined fuels has further influenced domestic supply levels, leading to higher inventories and adjustments in refinery output strategies.
Meanwhile, LNG imports in China recorded a notable decline, falling 10.7% year-on-year to 8.18 million tons, marking a multi-year low. Despite being the world’s largest LNG importer, China capitalized on high spot prices by reloading cargoes, supported by sufficient domestic and pipeline gas supplies amid weaker demand. Market data also confirmed that monthly LNG imports hit their lowest level since 2018.
Read:Russia’s Yamal LNG Resumes LNG Exports to China, Signaling Shift in Global Gas Flows
The combined effects of declining LNG imports, stable China crude oil imports, and the Iran war impact underscore shifting dynamics in the global energy market, with Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East oil supply trends expected to play a critical role in the coming months.
