Hormuz Oil Exports, Global Oil Supply, Tanker Availability: IEA Warns Strait of Hormuz Recovery Will Take Months
The Hormuz oil exports, global oil supply, and tanker availability outlook remains under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could take up to two months to stabilize after reopening. The disruption has significantly impacted Hormuz oil exports and global oil supply, while tanker availability continues to pose a major bottleneck for the recovery process following the US-Iran conflict.
The IEA highlights that disruptions to Hormuz oil exports have forced Gulf producers to shut in production due to limited alternative routes, sharply affecting global oil supply. At the same time, reduced tanker availability is complicating logistics, slowing the movement of crude shipments and delaying export normalization across the region.
According to the agency, shut-ins reduced global oil supply by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, with a further decline of 2.9 million barrels per day expected in April. A sustained recovery depends heavily on restoring exports through the Strait of Hormuz, where operational challenges remain significant.
The IEA explains that recovery will follow a phased process. Laden tankers must first exit the Gulf, after which empty vessels inside the strait will begin loading cargoes and gradually reduce stockpiles. However, the agency warns that upstream production and refining cannot resume effectively without a clear and stable loading program supported by sufficient port storage capacity.
Tanker movement remains a critical issue. Around 390 vessels, including 210 fully loaded tankers, were trapped in the strait at the onset of the conflict on February 28. Since then, only a net 49 tankers have exited, reflecting the slow pace of normalization.
Complicating matters further, many ballast tankers that were waiting outside Hormuz have diverted to other global markets. This shift in tanker availability means it could take additional time for vessels to return and pick up initial cargoes once exports resume, further delaying the recovery of Hormuz oil exports and stabilisation of global oil supply.
Iraq is expected to face particular challenges due to limited storage capacity at its ports, which may slow its ability to quickly restart exports. Meanwhile, upstream constraints add another layer of complexity. The IEA estimates that about half of the Gulf’s oil fields can return to pre-war output within two weeks of export resumption, increasing to 80% within a month.
However, the remaining 20% of oil fields may face prolonged restart issues due to technical challenges such as pressure depletion and flow impairment caused by wax or asphaltene deposits. Many of these complex fields are located in Iraq and Kuwait, raising concerns that some lost production may not fully recover.
The agency also notes that certain fields will require specialized oilfield services, including workovers, coiled-tubing operations, chemical treatments, and perforation. Fields dependent on secondary or enhanced oil recovery methods could take even longer to restart due to their reliance on uninterrupted supplies of gas, power, steam, and chemicals.
