OPEC+ Poised for Fourth Consecutive Oil Output Increase Amid Strait of Hormuz Supply Crisis
Global Energy Markets Watch as OPEC+ Considers New Production Hike to Address Oil Supply Disruptions
OPEC+ is expected to approve a fourth consecutive increase in oil production targets during its meeting on Sunday, according to three sources within the alliance. The move comes as the ongoing US-Iran trade conflict continues to disrupt crude oil flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating one of the most significant global energy supply challenges in recent years.
The disruption of maritime oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has constrained exports from Gulf producers, limiting the ability of several OPEC+ members to increase actual crude production despite higher output targets. Since the end of February, key producers, including Saudi Arabia, have faced difficulties fully meeting customer demand due to reduced export capacity.
The situation has also been complicated by the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after nearly six decades of membership, adding further uncertainty to global oil market dynamics.
Seven leading OPEC+ members , Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman , increased their combined production quotas by approximately 600,000 barrels per day between April and June.
However, official OPEC data revealed that actual production declined significantly during the same period as Gulf export volumes fell. Total output averaged 33.19 million barrels per day in April, compared with 42.77 million barrels per day recorded in February.
Sources indicated that the seven participating countries are likely to raise production targets by an additional 188,000 barrels per day beginning in July. The proposed increase would match the revised June adjustment and reflects a reduction from the monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day approved in April and May following the UAE’s departure from OPEC.
Read More: MOL, Sinopec and Marubeni Sign MoU to Establish Long-Term Marine Biodiesel Fuel Supply System
All sources emphasized that discussions remain ongoing and that a final decision has not yet been formally approved.
The broader OPEC+ alliance, consisting of 21 member countries, is also scheduled to hold a full ministerial meeting on Sunday. According to sources, no major changes to the group’s overall production policy are currently expected.
The outcome of the meeting will be closely watched by global shipping companies, energy traders, oil market analysts, and maritime stakeholders, as developments in the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence crude oil transportation, tanker movements, energy security, and international trade flows.
